Electric Car Update Spring 2013

Sales of electric cars continue to climb showing a similar trend to hybrid cars right after their introduction a few years earlier.

The offerings for 2013 are the Tesla Model S,Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, Smart Fortwo, Fiat 500e, Coda, Ford Focus Electric, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Honda Fit EV, Toyota Rav4 EV, Weego LiFE, Mini E.

Cumulative growth curve for Electric cars in the USA over the past two years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electric Car sales have grown and now represent 3.77% of the new car market share in Q1 2013, continuing the steady growth through 2012. If you have ever worked with Wal-Mart on new product introductions, you would know that they do not consider getting into a market until a new concept represents about 10% of the total market. That should happen in roughly 3 years based on present market growth.

It is worth pondering this for a second. We have had cars and car innovation for over 100 years and in the space of 5-6 short years electric cars are likely to represent 10% of the market! In other words mass acceptance? Wow! Best you get yours now!

Toyota is bucking the trend though with a big announcement last September that they were killing their plans for electric cars and increasing their Hybrid production to 21 models by 2015. We’ll take that. In fact, I would be very surprised if Toyota don’t insert a hybrid drive system in every car before the end of the decade. It makes a lot of sense, pushing up the numbers and therefore helping them to get to economies of scale and cut the costs even further and what Driver would not want to be able to enjoy the better mileage that it would deliver. They say that they don’t expect to sell more the 2,700 of the electric Rav 4 in the next 3 years. Well something is definitely wrong in their calculations. To date this year over 9,000 electric vehicles have been sold already.

Anyone want to take a bet that there will not be electric propulsion system of some sort (hybrid/power assist/range extension…) in every vehicle by the end of the decade?

Why?

It is hard to deny the story in this chart. Electric will always be substantially cheaper than gas. Perhaps much cheaper. Anyone seen gas prices going down at a pump near you over the long-term the past 5 years? It will just keep going up.

electricity versus gasoline per gallon equivalents in a shart until 2035